Analysis

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Some highs and lows: Investor sentiment

Some of the challenges being thrown up by the energy transition, in particular around approvals, capacity and supply chain constraints, skilled labour shortages and government interventions are being reflected in the latest assessment of investor sentiment towards the sector. We take a look.

BY Carl Kitchen Nov 23 2023

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Energy Dynamics Report - A Tale of Minimum Operational Demand and Wholesale Price declines

The third quarter saw significant price declines compared with the corresponding quarter in 2022 right across the NEM. At the same time with increased output from solar and wind generation inin Queensland’s case, minimum operational demand records were set or equaled in every region. The quarter also saw the highest-ever level of negative price intervals with all regions showing an increase. We dive in to the pricing and operational demand detail of AEMO’s Q3 Quarterly Energy Dynamics Report.

BY Australian Energy Council Nov 09 2023

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NEM generation profile 2022-23

The AER’s 2023 State of the Energy Market highlights the generation mix across the NEM as well as emerging trends. We take a look at what key developments occurred in the generation mix and how they impacted price trends throughout the 2022-23 financial year.

BY Australian Energy Council Oct 12 2023

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Cost storm hits UK offshore wind

As Australia prepares for its first offshore wind projects, the leading international market for offshore wind, the UK, has hit some rough seas due to a combination of low strike contract prices being offered under its contract for difference scheme and major increases in overall project costs. Its latest contracts for difference auction price cap was set at GBP44/MWh but resulted in no offshore project proposals. We take a look and consider what is proposed in response to support the UK’s ambitious offshore wind target of 50GW by 2030.

BY Carl Kitchen Oct 05 2023

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GenCost verdict: Onshore wind and solar remain lowest cost generation

The latest GenCost report has again highlighted that solar and onshore wind remain the lowest cost new build generation available. This remains the case even when integration costs are factored in. The report also quantifies the cost of global supply chain constraints which have impacted the raw material costs for manufacturing, as well as the transport costs involved in getting new generation installed. Those constraints have led to an estimated average 20 per cent increase in technology costs compared to a year ago. Read more to see the forecast costs of different generation technologies.

BY Carl Kitchen Jul 27 2023

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Reports highlight ongoing challenge of transition

Amidst all the discussion of the energy transition two new reports looking at energy use and options for the energy transition have highlighted the continued major challenge to reduce overall carbon emissions. We take a look at the '2023 statistical review of world energy' and the ‘How to make net zero happen’ reports side by side to provide a picture of where energy consumption has been, and where it may be going in the future and the implications for the energy sector.

BY Australian Energy Council Jul 20 2023

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Reliability standard ain’t broke

Since market start the NEM has used a single and simple outcome metric for its reliability standard: “Unserved Energy” (USE). Essentially, we target an average of no more than 10.5 minutes off supply per customer per year from rotational load-shedding. In response to a Reliability Panel Review, the Australian Energy Council has published a report by Endgame Economics that theoretically contemplates the appropriateness of the existing standard in the transitioning power system and concludes that the existing simple USE output form approach remains the best approach for the future power system, just as it is in the current power system. Read more.

BY Ben Skinner Jul 13 2023

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Queensland Energy and Jobs Plan – the update

Last September the Queensland Government announced the “Energy and Jobs Plan”, a remarkably comprehensive central plan to revolutionise the Queensland electricity sector, phasing out the currently dominant coal sector over a decade and replacing it with renewables and storage. The plan also called for a transmission “supergrid”, three Renewable Energy Zones (REZs), and two enormous pumped hydro schemes. The government has progressed the plan by announcing new renewable energy targets and publishing draft legislation to enact these and the plan.

BY Ben Skinner Jun 22 2023

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Energy Outlook points to exponential electricity growth

Increasing levels of electrification and rising living standards globally will see an exponential growth in the demand for electricity, according to projections in BP’s latest energy assessment. BP’s Energy Outlook is updated annually to provide useful insights in the energy transition globally. It considers three scenarios which are designed to consider the full range of potential outcomes into the future and resulting carbon impacts. We take a look at what this latest review finds.

BY Mitchell Cutting Apr 27 2023

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Deep Dive: 2022 Victorian Election Commitments

Recent data shows that energy is an issue that more and more voters are conscious of as they consider which politicians are best to lead us. The latest True Issues Survey conducted by JWS Research and published in the Australian Financial Review shows that 39% of people believe that energy is one of the most important issue the government should focus on, compared with 20% in March. This movement comes against a background of an energy crisis in June precipitating higher wholesale energy prices and the effects beginning to filter through to consumer bills.

BY Australian Energy Council Nov 24 2022

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CSIRO does the maths: RE + Integration

The CSIRO’s latest assessment of the cost of various generating technologies shows renewables remain the cheapest new build, even when integration costs for additional transmission, storage and synchronous condensers are included. We take a closer look at the numbers and what the GenCost report finds.

BY Carl Kitchen Jul 14 2022

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Renewable applications of District Energy

District heating has been designed around efficiently capturing waste heat from thermal power stations. But what about when those power stations close in favour of renewable energy – is the district heating system stranded? Developments are emerging overseas that could give these systems a life in even a fully renewable power system.

BY Mitchell Cutting Jul 14 2022

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Outlook highlights challenges and change

The latest US Energy Information Administration (EIA) annual energy outlook provides a useful insight into the shifts in both the drivers of electricity consumption and the anticipated transition in the generation sources. In particular it highlights the ongoing important role that gas generation will play in the energy mix as renewables continue to grow.

BY Australian Energy Council Apr 21 2022

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Renewables go from strength to strength

The Clean Energy Regulator's latest assessment of the carbon market has underscored the fact that renewables are going from strength to strength.

BY Australian Energy Council Dec 09 2021

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Offshore framework to bring new swell?

The Federal Government’s new legislation to clarify offshore energy developments, was greeted with suggestions it would prompt a rush of offshore wind farms around our coastline. Offshore wind farms typically take 6-10 years to develop and build. Currently many of these projects are in pre-feasibility stage.

BY Carl Kitchen Sep 16 2021

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Increases in negative prices: Is it a positive?

If there's one thing the Australian Energy Regulator’s State of the Energy Market report has reminded us, it’s that the National Electricity Market can be a wild ride at times. After the NEM achieved the lowest first quarter for wholesale prices since 2012, the last few months have seen an increase in price volatility.

BY Carl Kitchen Jul 08 2021

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FMG chases green dream

Disruption is one of the cornerstones of the success of Fortescue Metals Group. FMG’s ability to get things done in the face of seemingly insurmountable barriers can be illustrated no more vividly than when BHP and Rio Tinto sought to prevent the then start up iron ore miner from accessing its rail lines in the Pilbara. FMG built its own and outdid its rivals by extending those lines to Perth. Now FMG wants to apply the same zeal to energy and green steel.

BY Hamish Fitzsimmons Mar 04 2021

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Dropping demand and plunging prices: Can you have too much of a good thing?

The fourth quarter of 2020 saw the NEM reach lowest average demand since Q4 2001 – with SA and Victoria’s spot prices hitting record lows. Are customers benefiting from the price suppression effects of renewable energy generation? Or is the market telling us a different story?

BY Ben Skinner Feb 18 2021

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Renewables in the NEM: Are they leading to price extremes?

With the ongoing growth of renewables in Australia there has been speculation of the overall impact this will have on an energy-only market like the NEM and in particular, its potential influence on spot prices.

BY Carl Kitchen Aug 20 2020

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REZs: Can they overcome the prisoner’s dilemma?

Last week the NSW Government announced its intention to expedite plans for the state’s second REZ in New England.

BY Ben Skinner & Carl Kitchen Jul 16 2020

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