Analysis

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Australia’s net zero plan is looking a lot like an electricity-only plan

The past three years have seen a stronger commitment to encouraging economy-wide decarbonisation, as seen through reforms to the Safeguard Mechanism and new policies like the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard and Future Made in Australia. But the release of two emissions reduction progress reports paints a sobering reality – no sector other than electricity is doing anything to help Australia meet its 2030 target. Is this leading to the proverbial “all eggs in one basket”? Or is electricity decarbonisation really the only viable pathway to 43 per cent by 2030? We take a closer look.

BY Rhys Thomas Dec 12 2024

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Tackling growing costs of energy reforms

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) recently submitted a rule change proposal in Western Australia to amend the way its budget is set. The changes would have resulted in a shift from a fully regulated model to a NEM-like unregulated approach. Stakeholders raised concerns the proposed rule change would reduce transparency and accountability, and Energy Policy WA rejected the proposal last week. At the same time AEMO lodged its rule change proposal, the Australian Energy Council engaged Rennie Advisory to identify the root causes for what have become AEMO’s unpredictable and steadily rising costs. Here we take a look at AEMO’s rule change proposal, the issues identified by Rennie Advisory and some options that could be considered.

BY Graham Pearson Dec 12 2024

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Getting innovation into the system: A retail perspective

In recent years, the energy landscape in Australia has undergone significant transformation, driven by digitisation and the increasing use of smart technologies. Where previously customers only had the choice of ‘who’ sold them energy and at what price, they can now increasingly ask ‘how’ they want their energy. This shift is empowering consumers to take a more active role in managing their energy consumption and costs, thanks to innovative products and services offered by retailers. From smart meters to virtual power plants and tailored tariff structures, energy providers are embracing new technologies. We take a look at where retailers have been delivering innovation and some regulatory barriers that can slow it down.

BY Braeden Keen Dec 05 2024

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Frontier Economics and the cost of the transition: How does it stack up?

Nearly two weeks ago, headlines revealed Australia’s energy transition would be more expensive than previously estimated. This news stemmed from modelling by Frontier Economics, which highlighted long-term costs beyond the commonly cited net present value figure of $122 billion in capital cost, as outlined in the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP). We took a closer look.

BY Australian Energy Council Nov 28 2024

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ISP NEM 2040 Model with VRE drought – will it be reliable?

We recently published an article on the 20-27 May 2024 Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) drought and applied it to AEMO’s 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP) eight-day renewable drought in 2040 scenario for the National Electricity Market, excluding Queensland. Our conclusion was that the 2024 ISP VRE drought scenario does not transparently or rigorously demonstrate how the grid would perform in a VRE drought. Our concern was that when we modelled a 2040 VRE drought, we could see significant amounts of load shedding even with some simplifying assumptions made for hydro and gas-powered generation (GPG) output. Stress testing how the energy system will cope with VRE droughts well ahead of time is an important task, and the AEC has devoted significant time to developing an internal model.

BY Peter Brook Nov 28 2024

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The changing shape of US grid investments

As the United States ponders the implications of a new Trump Administration on energy and climate policy, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released a snapshot of grid investments over the past two decades. The data highlights that major energy companies are now spending more annually on delivery of power to homes and businesses than on the production of electricity. We take a look.

BY Australian Energy Council Nov 21 2024

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The return of Trump: What does it mean for Australia’s 2035 target?

Donald Trump’s decisive election win has given him a mandate to enact sweeping policy changes, including in the energy sector, potentially altering the US’s energy landscape. His proposals, which include halting offshore wind projects, withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate Agreement and dismantling the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), could have a knock-on effect across the globe, as countries try to navigate a path towards net zero. So, what are his policies, and what do they mean for Australia’s own emission reduction targets? We take a look.

BY Rhys Thomas & Tom Monaghan Nov 14 2024

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The demographics behind the Top 5 solar postcodes

More than a third of Australian households now have solar installed, making it the largest generation source, ahead of coal plants. While all parts of Australia has seen growth in solar installations, in our latest Solar Report we highlighted the leading postcodes in terms of installations this year to date. Here we take a look at the demographics behind the suburbs in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland based on the most recent census.

BY Carl Kitchen Nov 14 2024

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Queensland’s New Government: An Energy Policy Pivot

After Queensland's recent election, the Liberal National Party (LNP), led by David Crisafulli, is set to shift Queensland’s energy plan to one that prioritises affordability, reliability, and coal continuity over ambitious renewable targets. This shift from the previous government's approach aims to balance immediate cost control with stability, though it may challenge Australia's broader renewable energy goals. So, what policies does the new LNP government plan to implement, and what challenges may they encounter? We take a look.

BY Tom Monaghan Oct 31 2024

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1.5 Degree C aligned – what does it actually look like?

Earlier this month, the CSIRO published economy-wide modelling looking at how each sector in Australia could transition to a 2oC and 1.5oC aligned world respectively. With mandatory climate disclosure laws kicking in next year, which will see companies required to assess how their businesses fit in a 1.5oC aligned future, this modelling is illustrative of some of the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Here we take a closer look at the 1.5oC scenario, with a particular focus on what it means for the electricity generation sector. Read more.

BY Rhys Thomas Oct 31 2024

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International Energy Summit: The State of the Global Energy Transition

Australian Energy Council CEO Louisa Kinnear and the Energy Networks Australia CEO and Chair, Dom van den Berg and John Cleland recently attended the International Electricity Summit. Held every 18 months, the Summit brings together leaders from across the globe to share updates on energy markets around the world and the opportunities and challenges being faced as the world collectively transitions to net zero. We take a look at what was discussed.

BY Louisa Kinnear Oct 24 2024

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May 2024 Variable Renewable Energy Drought and the ISP in 2040

Recently we published an article on the 20-27 May 2024 Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) drought estimating the hourly capacity factors of utility scale wind and solar by NEM region. The severity of this drought on wind generation particularly in NSW, Victoria and SA invited the question as to how the future grid would perform under the same conditions when gas powered generation (GPG) and hydro are the only genuinely dispatchable sources of electricity. We took a closer look.

BY Peter Brook Oct 24 2024

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Australia’s Green Hydrogen Ambitions: Soldiering On Despite Adversity

Australia's green hydrogen sector is key to the nation's long-term decarbonisation plans, with ambitions to become a leading global producer and exporter. Despite strong government support and vast renewable resources, recent setbacks from major players like Fortescue and Origin have highlighted significant challenges to achieving a commercially viable industry. We take a look at challenges and opportunities facing the sector.

BY Tom Monaghan Oct 17 2024

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Cost Reflective Tariffs: The Disconnect Between Theory and Reality

Energy Consumers Australia (ECA) recently highlighted significant flaws in the implementation of cost-reflective tariffs, questioning their effectiveness in reducing network costs and benefiting consumers. As the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) prepares for its upcoming review on electricity pricing, we take a look at these tariffs and explore alternative approaches to managing network efficiency without imposing complex pricing structures on all consumers. Read more.

BY David Markham Oct 17 2024

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Phantom Dwellings in Australia: A Growing Barrier for Renewable Energy Projects

As Australia intensifies its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve 82% renewable energy by 2030, significant obstacles continue to emerge. One of the more insidious and less understood tactics employed by opponents of renewable energy development is the strategic use of phantom dwellings - proposed residential developments that are never intended to be built but are utilised to delay or block renewable projects by exploiting legal and planning loopholes. We take a look at how this tactic is being used, the impact it’s having on renewable projects, and what can be done to mitigate against it.

BY Tom Monaghan Oct 10 2024

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Is increased volatility the new norm?

This year has showcased an increased level of volatility in the National Electricity Market (NEM). To date we have seen significant fluctuations in spot prices with prices hitting both maximum price caps on several occasions and ongoing growth in periods of negative prices with generation being curtailed at times. We took a closer look at why this is happening and the impact this could have on the grid in the future.

BY Australian Energy Council Oct 03 2024

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Energy Retail: Meeting the Future Needs of Energy Consumers

The electrification of everything, responsive demand and energy storage, the rise of prosumers and digitalisation and the evolving regulatory framework are all changing the landscape for energy consumers, making it clear that the traditional energy only retail model is not likely to meet all of consumers’ needs in a high consumer energy resources (CER) world. Currently, the AEC and its members are in the midst of a series of projects which will help consumers find the connections they need. What are are they and how will they help? We take a closer look.

BY Jo De Silva Oct 03 2024

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Europe's Power Move: Leaving Coal Behind

Next week, the world’s sixth largest economy will bid farewell to coal, with the UK closing its final coal-fired power station. Like the UK, Europe is also seeing a collective phase out of coal, with a majority of European Union states pledging to transition away from the fossil-fuel. Europe’s commitment to decarbonise has accelerated this shift, but what are the implications of this phase-out? We take a closer look.

BY Tom Monaghan Sep 26 2024

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Is there a better way to manage AEMO’s costs?

The market operator performs a vital role in managing the electricity and gas systems and markets across Australia. In WA, AEMO recovers the costs of performing its functions via fees paid by market participants, based on expenditure approved by the State’s Economic Regulation Authority. In the last few years, AEMO’s costs have sky-rocketed in WA driven in part by the amount of market reform and the challenges of budgeting projects that are not adequately defined. Here we take a look at how AEMO’s costs have escalated, proposed changes to the allowable revenue framework, and what can be done to keep a lid on costs.

BY Graham Pearson Sep 19 2024

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The Challenge Ahead for Australia’s Net Zero Economy Authority

Earlier this month. the Bill to establish a Net Zero Economy Authority was passed by Parliament. The new Authority aims to promote Australia’s economic transformation as the country moves towards a net zero emissions economy, ensuring the regions and their workers are both supported and able to benefit from the transition. So how will the Authority achieve this, and how will it fit in with the plethora of jurisdictional and industry transition efforts already underway? We take a closer look.

BY Braeden Keen Sep 19 2024

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