Analysis

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Climate and energy: What do the next three years hold?

With Labor being returned to Government for a second term, this time with an increased majority, the next three years will represent a litmus test for how Australia is tracking to meet its signature 2030 targets of 43 per cent emissions reduction and 82 per cent renewable generation, and not to mention, the looming 2035 target. With significant obstacles laying ahead, the Government will need to hit the ground running. We take a look at some of the key projections and checkpoints throughout the next term.

BY Rhys Thomas May 15 2025

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Principles-based regulations: What are the opportunities and trade-offs?

As Australia’s energy market continues to evolve, so do the approaches to its regulation. With consumers engaging in a wider range of products and services, regulators are exploring a shift from prescriptive, rules-based models to principles-based frameworks. Central to this discussion is the potential introduction of a “consumer duty” for retailers aimed at addressing future risks and supporting better outcomes. We take a closer look at the current consultations underway, unpack what principles-based regulation involves, and consider the opportunities and challenges it may bring.

BY Braeden Keen May 08 2025

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2025 Federal Election: Distinctly Different Energy Policies

Energy has been a major issue and point of difference for the major parties. Labor and the Coalition offer sharply contrasting visions, with significant implications for generation investment, grid reliability, emissions outcomes, and regulatory certainty. With a minority government considered a strong possibility, we examine the competing platforms of Labor and the Coalition, as well as the positions of the Greens, Teals, and key Independents.

BY Tom Monaghan May 01 2025

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Beyond the Rebate: Battery Policy, VPPs, and Household Returns

A re-elected Labor Government’s promise to cut home battery costs by 30 per cent through the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) has sparked interest—and raised questions. While the move may accelerate battery uptake among solar households, critics warn it could deepen inequities by leaving renters and vulnerable customers behind. More importantly greater value will be realised if the storage capacity is also coordinated through mechanisms like Virtual Power Plants (VPPs). We take a look at the benefits of VPPs.

BY David Markham Apr 10 2025

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2025 Election: A tale of two campaigns

The election has been called and the campaigning has started in earnest. With both major parties proposing a markedly different path to deliver the energy transition and to reach net zero, we take a look at what sits beneath the big headlines and analyse how the current Labor Government is tracking towards its targets, and how a potential future Coalition Government might deliver on their commitments.

BY Ben Barnes Apr 03 2025

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Electricity Prices: Are Retail Costs the Real Issue?

Retail costs have been in the news following the release of the Australian Energy Regulator’s draft default market offer decision. This is despite retail costs being dwarfed by network and wholesale costs that make up 33-48 per cent and 31-44 per cent of the DMO 7 draft prices respectively. According to new analysis, increases in the DMO regions have been largely driven by rises in those two largest components. These are supply chain costs retailers cannot fully control and pass through to end users, so why the intense focus on retail costs? We take a look.

BY Australian Energy Council Mar 20 2025

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Wholesale Market Settings Review – Key Issues to Resolve

The Australian Energy Council continues to engage with the Expert Panel conducting the wholesale market settings review. Submissions closed on 14 February. The Review is an important piece of work, as it seeks to define the services the energy system will need as the transition continues and to ensure that market-based incentives and signals deliver the required investment, enabling a shift away from a continued reliance on Government intervention. What is emerging is good alignment across stakeholders on the key issues. We take a closer look at some of the common themes and what the AEC believes are key areas.

BY David Feeney Mar 13 2025

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Australia's Solar Waste: A Growing Problem

Australia has long been a global leader in the adoption of solar energy, with one of the highest per capita rates of rooftop solar installations worldwide. Solar power has become a cornerstone in the nation's commitment to sustainability, contributing significantly to reducing its carbon footprint and reliance on fossil fuels. However, as solar panels reach the end of their lifespan, the issue of solar panel waste is rapidly emerging as a significant environmental challenge that could escalate in the coming decades. We take a closer look.

BY Tom Monaghan Mar 06 2025

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Navigating Energy Consumer Reforms: What is the impact?

Both the Essential Services Commission (ESC) and Australian Energy Market Commission have recently unveiled consultation papers outlining reforms intended to alleviate the financial burden on energy consumers and further strengthen customer protections. These proposals range from bill crediting mechanisms, additional protections for customers on legacy contracts to the removal of additional fees and charges. We take a closer look at the reforms currently under consultation, examining how they might work in practice and the potential impact on consumers.

BY Braeden Keen Feb 20 2025

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Australia’s net zero plan is looking a lot like an electricity-only plan

The past three years have seen a stronger commitment to encouraging economy-wide decarbonisation, as seen through reforms to the Safeguard Mechanism and new policies like the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard and Future Made in Australia. But the release of two emissions reduction progress reports paints a sobering reality – no sector other than electricity is doing anything to help Australia meet its 2030 target. Is this leading to the proverbial “all eggs in one basket”? Or is electricity decarbonisation really the only viable pathway to 43 per cent by 2030? We take a closer look.

BY Rhys Thomas Dec 12 2024

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Getting innovation into the system: A retail perspective

In recent years, the energy landscape in Australia has undergone significant transformation, driven by digitisation and the increasing use of smart technologies. Where previously customers only had the choice of ‘who’ sold them energy and at what price, they can now increasingly ask ‘how’ they want their energy. This shift is empowering consumers to take a more active role in managing their energy consumption and costs, thanks to innovative products and services offered by retailers. From smart meters to virtual power plants and tailored tariff structures, energy providers are embracing new technologies. We take a look at where retailers have been delivering innovation and some regulatory barriers that can slow it down.

BY Braeden Keen Dec 05 2024

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Frontier Economics and the cost of the transition: How does it stack up?

Nearly two weeks ago, headlines revealed Australia’s energy transition would be more expensive than previously estimated. This news stemmed from modelling by Frontier Economics, which highlighted long-term costs beyond the commonly cited net present value figure of $122 billion in capital cost, as outlined in the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP). We took a closer look.

BY Australian Energy Council Nov 28 2024

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ISP NEM 2040 Model with VRE drought – will it be reliable?

We recently published an article on the 20-27 May 2024 Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) drought and applied it to AEMO’s 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP) eight-day renewable drought in 2040 scenario for the National Electricity Market, excluding Queensland. Our conclusion was that the 2024 ISP VRE drought scenario does not transparently or rigorously demonstrate how the grid would perform in a VRE drought. Our concern was that when we modelled a 2040 VRE drought, we could see significant amounts of load shedding even with some simplifying assumptions made for hydro and gas-powered generation (GPG) output. Stress testing how the energy system will cope with VRE droughts well ahead of time is an important task, and the AEC has devoted significant time to developing an internal model.

BY Peter Brook Nov 28 2024

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The return of Trump: What does it mean for Australia’s 2035 target?

Donald Trump’s decisive election win has given him a mandate to enact sweeping policy changes, including in the energy sector, potentially altering the US’s energy landscape. His proposals, which include halting offshore wind projects, withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate Agreement and dismantling the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), could have a knock-on effect across the globe, as countries try to navigate a path towards net zero. So, what are his policies, and what do they mean for Australia’s own emission reduction targets? We take a look.

BY Rhys Thomas & Tom Monaghan Nov 14 2024

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The demographics behind the Top 5 solar postcodes

More than a third of Australian households now have solar installed, making it the largest generation source, ahead of coal plants. While all parts of Australia has seen growth in solar installations, in our latest Solar Report we highlighted the leading postcodes in terms of installations this year to date. Here we take a look at the demographics behind the suburbs in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland based on the most recent census.

BY Carl Kitchen Nov 14 2024

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1.5 Degree C aligned – what does it actually look like?

Earlier this month, the CSIRO published economy-wide modelling looking at how each sector in Australia could transition to a 2oC and 1.5oC aligned world respectively. With mandatory climate disclosure laws kicking in next year, which will see companies required to assess how their businesses fit in a 1.5oC aligned future, this modelling is illustrative of some of the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Here we take a closer look at the 1.5oC scenario, with a particular focus on what it means for the electricity generation sector. Read more.

BY Rhys Thomas Oct 31 2024

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International Energy Summit: The State of the Global Energy Transition

Australian Energy Council CEO Louisa Kinnear and the Energy Networks Australia CEO and Chair, Dom van den Berg and John Cleland recently attended the International Electricity Summit. Held every 18 months, the Summit brings together leaders from across the globe to share updates on energy markets around the world and the opportunities and challenges being faced as the world collectively transitions to net zero. We take a look at what was discussed.

BY Louisa Kinnear Oct 24 2024

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May 2024 Variable Renewable Energy Drought and the ISP in 2040

Recently we published an article on the 20-27 May 2024 Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) drought estimating the hourly capacity factors of utility scale wind and solar by NEM region. The severity of this drought on wind generation particularly in NSW, Victoria and SA invited the question as to how the future grid would perform under the same conditions when gas powered generation (GPG) and hydro are the only genuinely dispatchable sources of electricity. We took a closer look.

BY Peter Brook Oct 24 2024

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Australia’s Green Hydrogen Ambitions: Soldiering On Despite Adversity

Australia's green hydrogen sector is key to the nation's long-term decarbonisation plans, with ambitions to become a leading global producer and exporter. Despite strong government support and vast renewable resources, recent setbacks from major players like Fortescue and Origin have highlighted significant challenges to achieving a commercially viable industry. We take a look at challenges and opportunities facing the sector.

BY Tom Monaghan Oct 17 2024

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Cost Reflective Tariffs: The Disconnect Between Theory and Reality

Energy Consumers Australia (ECA) recently highlighted significant flaws in the implementation of cost-reflective tariffs, questioning their effectiveness in reducing network costs and benefiting consumers. As the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) prepares for its upcoming review on electricity pricing, we take a look at these tariffs and explore alternative approaches to managing network efficiency without imposing complex pricing structures on all consumers. Read more.

BY David Markham Oct 17 2024

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