South Australia’s electricity market continues to attract substantial commentary around the causes of its high prices events, and this week the Climate Council joined the fray. It released a paper[i] to argue that renewables were not responsible and for more competition for the remaining thermal power generation in the state.
The Climate Council cited factors such as high gas prices, limited grid connection with the eastern states and lack of competition as being primarily responsible for higher wholesale prices, while arguing that renewables have been an effective brake on prices.
In our view this a partial analysis. And here’s why.
First, the low availability of wind during key weeks in July was also a factor in the recent spikes in the SA wholesale spot market. Higher prices reflect scarcity of generation, just as lower prices reflect abundance of generation.
The high price events were a result of this scarcity and constraints on the main interconnector between SA and Victoria, which is in the middle of being upgraded, and colder weather pushing up demand. As a result, the gas generators (the remaining dispatchable plant) in South Australia needed to acquire extra gas on the spot market to meet the substantial increase in demand.
These short run spikes were on top of more sustained increases in the contract price for electricity following the announced closure of the Northern Power station. As short run market conditions return to normal, they return to this new normal of higher prices.
Second, the Climate Council and others cite a lack of competition in the South Australian electricity market. Yet, the development of new renewables projects in the state has increased diversity of generation sources and ownership. There are fewer dispatchable generators following the closure of the Northern Power Station earlier this year. But a major contributing factor to this is the commercial impact of so much new generation in the market[ii].
In a paper on the South Australian market released late in 2015, Deloitte Access Economics warned that as thermal plant exited the South Australian market it would lead to higher price volatility and was “leading to an increased cost of managing risk. Electricity derivatives that are used to offset generators’ and retailers’ exposure to market volatility are increasing in price and decreasing in volume as generators exit the market. Intermittent generators and flexible generators that only operate at peak times are not well placed to offer baseload contracts (which large users rely on to help manage their risk).”[iii]
Third, the Climate Council paper claimed “average prices in SA are lower than they were in 2013 and 2008, when the state’s share of wind and solar were lower”. In 2013 wholesale prices included the carbon tax, while in 2008 South Australia experienced prolonged drought and heatwave conditions. In that year Adelaide recorded 15 consecutive days above 35 degrees Celsius – the longest for any Australian city[iv]. The Australian Energy Regulator pointed to the extreme temperatures as a contributing factor to record high prices at the time, as well as constraints in the Victorian interconnector capacity and the bidding of capacity at close to the price cap to meet the high demand. As a result “on the last day of the heatwave prices reached the cumulative price threshold and administered price caps were applied. This was the first time that administered pricing had been triggered since the commencement of the NEM in 1998”[v].
The Climate Council suggests a number of solutions.
Like the Climate Council, we think the South Australian electricity market is important, and warrants particular attention. We welcome robust, informed debate on what is happening there and how we deliver solutions that enable the continued decarbonisation of electricity supply whilst maintaining reliability and at the lowest cost.
We would observe two final things about the Climate Council paper. First, it illustrates a cognitive dissonance in some of the discussion. If we are going to look at market conditions in South Australia, we should consider the market as a whole. Focussing attention around high gas prices and lack of competition in firm generators, only reinforces a discriminatory mindset between conventional and renewable energy. It’s not us, it’s them. Second, the paper reinforces the need to carefully assess the factors behind recent higher prices in South Australia to properly inform energy planning and co-ordination at a national level.
[i] Mythbusting: Electricity prices in South Australia
[v] State of the Energy Market 2008, AER, page 88
The focus around AEMO’s latest assessment of gas supplies for eastern Australia was on its improved outlook. One change in its expectations for gas demand flows from the potential of gas-fired generation in the National Electricity Market. AEMO expects gas-fired generation demand to become more “peaky” and to switch to peaking in winter instead of summer.
With the ongoing growth of renewables in Australia there has been speculation of the overall impact this will have on an energy-only market like the NEM and in particular, its potential influence on spot prices.
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